“True” spread of Coronavirus

by lars on 18/03/2020

I’ve been wondering about the spread of the coronavirus. We can only test so many, and we can’t test fast enough.
That led me to think. The mortality rate of the coronavirus can only be estimated, and has indeed been estimated from 0.25% all the way to crazy 20% (which I don’t believe). The latest numbers I’ve seen that make sense is the CDC estimating 0.9% mortality rate.

The average incubation time of the virus seems to be 10 days. For the fatal cases, people seem to succumb to the virus and die on average 10 days after symptoms show. This means that there is a 20 day delay. From that we can calculate the likely number of infected up to 20 days ago. For example: If the mortality rate was 1% and 1 person died, that must mean that approximately 20 days ago 100 people were infected.

Disclaimer! I am not a medical professional or statistician or anything like that. I was just interested in the numbers. The numbers are purely based on actual reported deaths and the information that I have gathered. I might even have made mistakes in my calculations, so please correct me, if that is the case.

Here is a graph showing estimated spread in South Korea from January 26th up until February 26th based on an estimated mortality rate of 0.9%

Estimated spread vs. positive tests, South Korea

Note how few was actually tested positive vs. the estimated number of infected. Total estimated infected as of Feb. 26th: 9,000

Here is Italy:

Note how few were tested vs. estimated infected. Number of positive tests hardly registers on the graph. Total estimated infected as of Feb. 26th: 278,111

Here is the USA:

Estimated spread vs. positive tests, USA

Again, the tested hardly registers on the graph. Total estimated infected as of Feb. 26th: 12,111

Based on a 0.9% mortality rate, the current number of dead – 8,790 would mean that 20 days ago around 976,667 people were infected.

It looks scary. Now if the fatality rate is high, that means there is less infected, but the number cannot be too high, since that would mean number of positive tests exceeds the number of infections. Here is the South Korea graph with a mortality rate of 6.4%:

South Korea graph with an adjusted mortality rate of 6.4%

To me this means that the actual mortality rate must be a good deal lower than 6.4%.

As I said. This was for my own morbid curiosity (excuse the pun). Take it as you will.

Also, bear in mind that this is a look, at most, 20 days into the past.

Stay safe, people!

Oh, and if you are in need of hand sanitizer/disinfectant, e-liquid-recipes.com has a page that will help you follow the WHO-recipe for hand sanitizer :)

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(A) Pinnacle of First World Convenience?

by lars on 25/05/2019

I just fell over a review by coffee dude, James Hoffmann, of the Ember Smart Mug. A bluetooth enabled smart mug. That you have to do firmware upgrades on, once in a while. This seems like such a ridiculous and unnecessary product, and yet I want to own one. Now I haven’t bought it, but I am sooooo tempted.

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Samsung Galaxy Watch 46mm 2018 Review

by lars on 4/10/2018

This is my short review on the Samsung Galaxy Watch 46mm.

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iCloud-integration i Windows med Outlook 365

by lars on 20/04/2018

Har du fået en ny Windows 10 computer, installeret Office 365 og har en iPhone, vil du sikkert gerne have din kalender osv på din maskine. Min kollega, som bruger en iPhone, havde problemet, med at når han forsøgte at tilføje sin iCloud-konto i Windows, gav den ham en fuldstændig meningsløs besked: “Indstillingen kan ikke fortsætte, fordi Outlook ikke er konfigureret til en standardbeskrivelse. Kontroller Outlook-indstillingerne og prøv igen.” – Den oprindelige, engelske, beskrivelse er lidt mere sigende: “Setup can’t continue because Outlook isn’t configured to have a default profile. Check your Outlook settings and try again.”.

Den er meget svær at knække, men min kollega faldt over en post der løser problemet, som kræver at man bruger PowerShell til at fyre nogle kommandoer af.

iCloud error: Outlook isn’t configured to have a default profile

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Leonardo: Sketching and drawing for Windows

by lars on 10/04/2018

I found a very cool little drawing app for Windows. It’s made by a Swedish guy under the name Xade Software and it’s called Leonardo. So if you’re into drawing/sketching check it out!

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LetsEncrypt certbot DNS-challenge

by lars on 29/03/2018

If you have ever tried to get some LetsEncrypt SSL-certificates by using the DNS-challenge, you might have been frustrated that the challenge is different each time you run it, so you have to leave it until the DNS has propagated. That means you might lose the connection to the server you are doing it on. There is a simple work-around: Let’s say you are requesting 3 certificates (or challenges), go through to the last one, do your DNS changes, then press CTRL+C to abort the certbot. Now you can wait comfortably until the DNS has propagated. When it has, simply start the certbot again using the same command, and the challenges are the same.

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Hvad koster det, hvis man skal have én af hver i IKEA?

by lars on 16/03/2018

Det var et sjovt spørgsmål jeg faldt over på Twitterhjerne‘s feed: Hvad koster det, hvis man skal have én af hver i IKEA? Klokken var mange, og jeg sumpede lidt foran computeren, så jeg tænkte at det ville jeg da finde ud af. Jeg startede med at se, om der var et sted hvor man kunne se alle deres produkter. Det var der ikke, men der var et sted hvor man kan se alle kategorierne, og på undersiderne er alle produkterne så.

Resultatet kom efter et par minutter: Der er 11.462 produkter. Det billigste koster 1,- og det dyreste 21.299,- … Den samlede pris for én af hver er 11.252.939,- Gennemsnitsprisen for et IKEA-produkt er kr 981,76 :-)

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High Sierra and ssh: publickey denied

by lars on 6/10/2017

Turns out Apple stopped supporting 1024-bit keys, so you should create new keys. While you do that, you can still access your SSH-hosts with your old key. Add this to ~/.ssh/config :

Host *
    PubkeyAcceptedKeyTypes +ssh-dss

You should then be able to git/ssh to your sites again. But do remember to upgrade, as your old 1024-bit key is vulnerable to the logjam-attack.

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Sammenlign ny registreringsafgift med den gamle

by lars on 22/09/2017

Så kom den nye registreringsafgift. Som et lille eksperiment, har jeg prøvet at lave en beregner, hvor du kan plotte en gammel pris ind, og sammenligne med hvad den nye pris vil være. Jeg ved den er korrekt for nogle priser, men jeg er ikke 100% sikker på, at den er korrekt for alle input!
Klik her for at prøve!

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Mavic Pro battery broke: Two middle LEDs

by lars on 22/09/2017

So, I was going to update my Mavic Pro to the latest firmware. At the end the iPad said that it had failed. The battery also looked weird. The second and third LED-indicator was lit and blinking every 15 seconds or so. And it wouldn’t react to anything, you could not turn the Mavic off. I pulled the battery out and replaced it with another and the update was successful this time. You have to upgrade all batteries, so I turned it off and replaced the second battery with the third – update was quick and successful.

Now I was stuck with the first battery that wouldn’t do anything. Every time I tried to upgrade it, it said that battery must be 50% or more. Inside the app it looked like 0% and 0 degrees warm, 0 mAh capacity :P I solved it by leaving it in the charger for about an hour, then started the app, then the RC, then plugged in the battery (the drone will turn off automatically with the defective battery). The “start screen” of DJI Go will check the firmware, then give you notice that there is a firmware mismatch, and if you want to upgrade. Swipe to upgrade and it worked.

Now I had to do charge it a few times before it worked. It didn’t work with my Android phone, but I succeeded with the iPad eventually. After upgrade, everything was back to normal.

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